Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Nationwide Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets — Thursday, November 12, 2026
How it finished
Tampa Bay Lightning beat Columbus Blue Jackets 3-1.
Goal summary
| P1 02:57 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | 1-0 |
| P1 12:20 | Matthew Knies | CBJ | 1-1 |
| P3 01:06 | Jake Guentzel | TBL | 2-1 |
| P3 07:41 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | 3-1 |
Three stars : 1. B. Hagel (TBL) · 2. J. Guentzel (TBL) · 3. D. Hildeby (TBL)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Tampa Bay Lightning as the favourite at 52%, and they won. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 15 meetings, going back to 2022. Tampa Bay Lightning lead 9 to 6, at 7.67 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Blue Jackets 5, Lightning 2 | TBL | 7 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Blue Jackets 8, Lightning 5 | CBJ | 13 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Blue Jackets 3, Lightning 2 | CBJ | 5 |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Lightning 6, Blue Jackets 2 | TBL | 8 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Lightning 5, Blue Jackets 3 | TBL | 8 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Blue Jackets 7, Lightning 6 (OT) | CBJ | 13 |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Lightning 5, Blue Jackets 2 | TBL | 7 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Lightning 4, Blue Jackets 2 | CBJ | 6 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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