Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Canadian Tire Centre
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators — Thursday, November 12, 2026
How it finished
Ottawa Senators beat Colorado Avalanche 4-3.
Goal summary
| P1 07:11 | Shane Pinto | OTT | 0-1 |
| P1 13:13 | Tim Stützle | OTT | 0-2 |
| P2 18:04 | Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 1-2 |
| P3 03:54 | Parker Kelly | COL | 2-2 |
| P3 10:03 | Gabriel Landeskog | COL | 3-2 |
| P3 16:04 | Drake Batherson | OTT | 3-3 |
| OT 02:08 | Shane Pinto | OTT | 3-4 |
Three stars : 1. S. Pinto (OTT) · 2. D. Batherson (OTT) · 3. P. Kelly (COL)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Colorado Avalanche as the favourite at 55%. The Ottawa Senators won instead. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2021. Colorado Avalanche lead 8 to 2, at 9.20 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Senators 5, Avalanche 2 | OTT | 7 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Avalanche 8, Senators 2 | COL | 10 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Avalanche 5, Senators 1 | OTT | 6 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Avalanche 5, Senators 4 | COL | 9 |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Avalanche 7, Senators 4 | OTT | 11 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Avalanche 6, Senators 4 | COL | 10 |
| Mar 16, 2023 | Avalanche 5, Senators 4 | OTT | 9 |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Avalanche 7, Senators 0 | COL | 7 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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