Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Scotiabank Arena
Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Thursday, November 12, 2026
How it finished
Minnesota Wild beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2.
Goal summary
| P1 17:53 | Matt Boldy | MIN | 1-0 |
| P2 04:05 | Auston Matthews | TOR | 1-1 |
| P2 06:59 | Zack MacEwen | TOR | 1-2 |
| P2 09:55 | Matt Boldy | MIN | 2-2 |
| P3 03:59 | Matt Boldy | MIN | 3-2 |
| P3 07:34 | Michael McCarron | MIN | 4-2 |
| P3 19:03 | Danila Yurov | MIN | 5-2 |
Three stars : 1. M. Boldy (MIN) · 2. Z. MacEwen (TOR) · 3. K. Kaprizov (MIN)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Minnesota Wild as the favourite at 57%, and they won. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2021. Toronto Maple Leafs lead 6 to 4, at 6.10 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Maple Leafs 4, Wild 2 | MIN | 6 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Wild 6, Maple Leafs 3 | TOR | 9 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Wild 3, Maple Leafs 1 | TOR | 4 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Wild 2, Maple Leafs 1 (OT) | MIN | 3 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Maple Leafs 4, Wild 3 (OT) | MIN | 7 |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Maple Leafs 7, Wild 4 | TOR | 11 |
| Feb 24, 2023 | Maple Leafs 2, Wild 1 (OT) | TOR | 3 |
| Nov 25, 2022 | Maple Leafs 4, Wild 3 | MIN | 7 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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