Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Canadian Tire Centre
Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
How it finished
Washington Capitals beat Ottawa Senators 3-2.
Goal summary
| P1 00:35 | Matt Roy | WSH | 1-0 |
| P2 11:05 | Ridly Greig | OTT | 1-1 |
| P2 16:04 | Hayden Hodgson | OTT | 1-2 |
| P3 12:31 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | WSH | 2-2 |
| OT 01:14 | Cole Hutson | WSH | 3-2 |
Three stars : 1. C. Hutson (WSH) · 2. T. Chabot (OTT) · 3. L. Thompson (WSH)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Ottawa Senators as the favourite at 56%. The Washington Capitals won instead. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 15 meetings, going back to 2021. Ottawa Senators lead 8 to 7, at 6.73 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Capitals 4, Senators 1 | WSH | 5 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Senators 4, Capitals 3 | OTT | 7 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Senators 7, Capitals 1 | WSH | 8 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Capitals 5, Senators 4 (OT) | WSH | 9 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Senators 5, Capitals 4 (OT) | OTT | 9 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Capitals 1, Senators 0 (OT) | OTT | 1 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Senators 3, Capitals 2 (OT) | WSH | 5 |
| Feb 26, 2024 | Capitals 6, Senators 3 | WSH | 9 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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