a Eastern Conference matchup
Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Senators lead the recent series 8 wins to 7. The home team won 8 of the 15 (53%).
Totals have split rather than clustered. 6 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 9 finished at 7 or more. The number never landed on 6. The busiest was Oct 25, 2021, Capitals 7, Senators 5, 12 goals between them. 7 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 18, 2026, Capitals 4, Senators 1.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Capitals 4, Senators 1 | Capitals | 5 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Senators 4, Capitals 3 | Senators | 7 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Senators 7, Capitals 1 | Capitals | 8 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Capitals 5, Senators 4 (OT) | Capitals | 9 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Senators 5, Capitals 4 (OT) | Senators | 9 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Capitals 1, Senators 0 (OT) | Senators | 1 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Senators 3, Capitals 2 (OT) | Capitals | 5 |
| Feb 26, 2024 | Capitals 6, Senators 3 | Capitals | 9 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Senators 6, Capitals 1 | Senators | 7 |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Senators 4, Capitals 3 (OT) | Capitals | 7 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Capitals 3, Senators 2 (OT) | Senators | 5 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | Senators 5, Capitals 2 | Senators | 7 |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Senators 4, Capitals 1 | Capitals | 5 |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Capitals 3, Senators 2 (OT) | Capitals | 5 |
| Oct 25, 2021 | Capitals 7, Senators 5 | Senators | 12 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.