Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Scotiabank Arena
Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
How it finished
Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3.
Goal summary
| P1 03:33 | Darren Raddysh | TOR | 0-1 |
| P1 16:09 | Brock Nelson | COL | 1-1 |
| P1 17:26 | Gabriel Landeskog | COL | 2-1 |
| P2 03:31 | Devon Toews | COL | 3-1 |
| P2 19:31 | Easton Cowan | TOR | 3-2 |
| P3 04:11 | Jack Roslovic | TOR | 3-3 |
| P3 05:02 | Gabriel Landeskog | COL | 4-3 |
| P3 17:15 | Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 5-3 |
| P3 17:30 | Martin Necas | COL | 6-3 |
Three stars : 1. G. Landeskog (COL) · 2. J. Roslovic (TOR) · 3. D. Toews (COL)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Colorado Avalanche as the favourite at 65%, and they won. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2021. Colorado Avalanche lead 5 to 5, at 7.20 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Avalanche 4, Maple Leafs 1 | TOR | 5 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Maple Leafs 4, Avalanche 3 (OT) | COL | 7 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Maple Leafs 2, Avalanche 1 | TOR | 3 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Avalanche 7, Maple Leafs 4 | COL | 11 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Avalanche 3 | COL | 7 |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Avalanche 5, Maple Leafs 3 | TOR | 8 |
| Mar 15, 2023 | Avalanche 2, Maple Leafs 1 (OT) | TOR | 3 |
| Dec 31, 2022 | Maple Leafs 6, Avalanche 2 | COL | 8 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
ArakIce provides statistical analysis and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction. If gambling stops being fun, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. In Ontario, call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.