Final · 7:00 p.m. ET · Scotiabank Arena
Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Saturday, November 7, 2026
How it finished
Montréal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2.
Goal summary
| P1 05:56 | Alex Newhook | MTL | 1-0 |
| P1 13:06 | Alex Newhook | MTL | 2-0 |
| P2 12:57 | Chris Kreider | MTL | 3-0 |
| P3 06:19 | William Nylander | TOR | 3-1 |
| P3 07:14 | Gavin McKenna | TOR | 3-2 |
| P3 12:15 | Zachary Bolduc | MTL | 4-2 |
Three stars : 1. A. Newhook (MTL) · 2. J. Fowler (MTL) · 3. W. Nylander (TOR)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Montréal Canadiens as the favourite at 56%, and they won. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 19 meetings, going back to 2021. Toronto Maple Leafs lead 11 to 8, at 5.63 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 1 | MTL | 4 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Canadiens 2, Maple Leafs 1 (OT) | TOR | 3 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Canadiens 5, Maple Leafs 2 | MTL | 7 |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 2 | TOR | 7 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Maple Leafs 1, Canadiens 0 (OT) | TOR | 1 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Maple Leafs 7, Canadiens 3 | MTL | 10 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Canadiens 1 | TOR | 5 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Canadiens 1, Maple Leafs 0 | MTL | 1 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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