a Atlantic Division matchup
Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 19 meetings
Maple Leafs lead the recent series 11 wins to 8. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 15 of the 19 (79%). The only road win by either club was Maple Leafs 3, Canadiens 2 on Mar 9, 2024.
9 of the 19 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 7 finished at 7 or more. 3 landed on 6. The busiest was Oct 11, 2023, Maple Leafs 6, Canadiens 5, 11 goals between them. 4 of the 19 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 10, 2026, Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 1.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 1 | Canadiens | 4 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Canadiens 2, Maple Leafs 1 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 3 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Canadiens 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Canadiens | 7 |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 2 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Maple Leafs 1, Canadiens 0 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 1 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Maple Leafs 7, Canadiens 3 | Canadiens | 10 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Canadiens 1 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Canadiens 1, Maple Leafs 0 | Canadiens | 1 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Canadiens 2 | Canadiens | 6 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Maple Leafs 3, Canadiens 2 | Canadiens | 5 |
| Oct 11, 2023 | Maple Leafs 6, Canadiens 5 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 11 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Maple Leafs 7, Canadiens 1 | Maple Leafs | 8 |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 1 | Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 2 (OT) | Canadiens | 5 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | Canadiens 4, Maple Leafs 3 | Canadiens | 7 |
| Apr 9, 2022 | Maple Leafs 3, Canadiens 2 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Canadiens 4, Maple Leafs 2 | Canadiens | 6 |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Canadiens 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Canadiens | 7 |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Maple Leafs 2, Canadiens 1 | Maple Leafs | 3 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Montréal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.