Final · 8:00 p.m. ET · Grand Casino Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild — Saturday, November 7, 2026
How it finished
Tampa Bay Lightning beat Minnesota Wild 4-3.
Goal summary
| P1 00:55 | Blake Coleman | MIN | 0-1 |
| P1 02:58 | Maxim Shabanov | MIN | 0-2 |
| P2 16:34 | Jake Guentzel | TBL | 1-2 |
| P3 06:49 | Maxim Shabanov | MIN | 1-3 |
| P3 13:44 | Jake Guentzel | TBL | 2-3 |
| P3 16:29 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous | TBL | 3-3 |
| OT 03:23 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 4-3 |
Three stars : 1. N. Kucherov (TBL) · 2. J. Guentzel (TBL) · 3. M. Shabanov (MIN)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Tampa Bay Lightning as the favourite at 60%, and they won. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2021. Tampa Bay Lightning lead 5 to 5, at 7.10 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Lightning 6, Wild 3 | TBL | 9 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Wild 5, Lightning 1 | MIN | 6 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Wild 5, Lightning 3 | MIN | 8 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Wild 4, Lightning 2 | TBL | 6 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Lightning 7, Wild 3 | TBL | 10 |
| Jan 4, 2024 | Lightning 4, Wild 1 | MIN | 5 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Lightning 4, Wild 2 | TBL | 6 |
| Jan 4, 2023 | Wild 5, Lightning 1 | MIN | 6 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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