Preview · 7:00 p.m. ET · Scotiabank Arena
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Saturday, October 3, 2026
What is true about this game today
Toronto Maple Leafs come in on 3 days of rest. Toronto Maple Leafs are 3 games into a homestand.
The recent history between these two
Their last 19 meetings, going back to 2021. Ottawa Senators lead 11 to 8, at 6.37 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Senators 3, Maple Leafs 1 | OTT | 4 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Senators 5, Maple Leafs 2 | OTT | 7 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Senators 5, Maple Leafs 2 | TOR | 7 |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Maple Leafs 7, Senators 5 | TOR | 12 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Senators 4, Maple Leafs 2 | TOR | 6 |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Senators 2, Maple Leafs 1 | OTT | 3 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | Senators 3, Maple Leafs 0 | TOR | 3 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Senators 5, Maple Leafs 3 | OTT | 8 |
See the projection for this game
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for Ottawa Senators against Toronto Maple Leafs, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
ArakIce provides statistical analysis and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction. If gambling stops being fun, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.