Preview · 7:00 p.m. ET · Benchmark International Arena
Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Saturday, October 3, 2026
What is true about this game today
Washington Capitals are playing their second game in two nights. Tampa Bay Lightning come in on 2 days of rest.
The recent history between these two
Their last 15 meetings, going back to 2021. Tampa Bay Lightning lead 9 to 6, at 5.80 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Lightning 5, Capitals 3 | WSH | 8 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Lightning 3, Capitals 2 | TBL | 5 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Capitals 3, Lightning 2 (OT) | WSH | 5 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Lightning 3, Capitals 1 | WSH | 4 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Capitals 5, Lightning 4 | TBL | 9 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Lightning 3, Capitals 0 | TBL | 3 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Capitals 4, Lightning 2 | WSH | 6 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Capitals 5, Lightning 3 | TBL | 8 |
See the projection for this game
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for Washington Capitals against Tampa Bay Lightning, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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