Final · 6:00 p.m. ET · Canada Life Centre
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets — Sunday, November 8, 2026
How it finished
Winnipeg Jets beat Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3.
Goal summary
| P2 01:53 | Cole Perfetti | WPG | 0-1 |
| P2 12:38 | Morgan Barron | WPG | 0-2 |
| P3 08:10 | Brayden Yager | WPG | 0-3 |
| P3 10:22 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | 1-3 |
| P3 14:01 | Pontus Holmberg | TBL | 2-3 |
| P3 14:27 | Pontus Holmberg | TBL | 3-3 |
| P3 19:58 | Mark Scheifele | WPG | 3-4 |
Three stars : 1. M. Scheifele (WPG) · 2. B. Yager (WPG) · 3. P. Holmberg (TBL)
What the model said before the game
Before puck drop, arakiceML had the Tampa Bay Lightning as the favourite at 57%. The Winnipeg Jets won instead. See the timestamped file.
One game says very little about a model. What matters is whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time over hundreds of games: see the accuracy record.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2022. Winnipeg Jets lead 7 to 3, at 7.00 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Jets 4, Lightning 1 | WPG | 5 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Lightning 4, Jets 1 | TBL | 5 |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Lightning 4, Jets 1 | TBL | 5 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Jets 7, Lightning 4 | WPG | 11 |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Jets 4, Lightning 2 | WPG | 6 |
| Nov 22, 2023 | Jets 3, Lightning 2 (OT) | TBL | 5 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Jets 3, Lightning 2 | TBL | 5 |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Jets 4, Lightning 2 | WPG | 6 |
Tonight's slate
ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for every game on tonight's schedule, and flags where the number sits against the book.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
ArakIce provides statistical analysis and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction. If gambling stops being fun, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. In Ontario, call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.