a Eastern Conference matchup
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Senators lead the recent series 10 wins to 5. The home team won 9 of the 15 (60%).
Totals have split rather than clustered. 9 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 6 finished at 7 or more. The number never landed on 6. The busiest was Jan 20, 2022, Penguins 6, Senators 4, 10 goals between them. 6 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 26, 2026, Penguins 4, Senators 3.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Penguins 4, Senators 3 (OT) | Senators | 7 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Senators 3, Penguins 2 | Penguins | 5 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Senators 4, Penguins 0 | Senators | 4 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Penguins 1, Senators 0 (OT) | Penguins | 1 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Senators 5, Penguins 0 | Penguins | 5 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Senators 3, Penguins 2 (OT) | Senators | 5 |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Senators 2, Penguins 1 (OT) | Senators | 3 |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Senators 5, Penguins 4 (OT) | Senators | 9 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Senators 5, Penguins 2 | Penguins | 7 |
| Mar 20, 2023 | Senators 2, Penguins 1 | Penguins | 3 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | Penguins 4, Senators 1 | Penguins | 5 |
| Jan 18, 2023 | Senators 5, Penguins 4 (OT) | Senators | 9 |
| Feb 10, 2022 | Penguins 2, Senators 0 | Senators | 2 |
| Jan 20, 2022 | Penguins 6, Senators 4 | Penguins | 10 |
| Nov 13, 2021 | Senators 6, Penguins 3 | Senators | 9 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Ottawa Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.