a Atlantic Division matchup
Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 18 meetings
Senators lead the recent series 10 wins to 8. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 13 of the 18 (72%).
4 of the 18 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 11 finished at 7 or more. 3 landed on 6. The busiest was Apr 8, 2023, Senators 7, Lightning 4, 11 goals between them. 1 of the 18 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Apr 7, 2026, Senators 6, Lightning 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Senators 6, Lightning 2 | Senators | 8 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Lightning 4, Senators 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Senators 5, Lightning 4 | Lightning | 9 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Senators 2, Lightning 1 | Senators | 3 |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Lightning 5, Senators 1 | Lightning | 6 |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Lightning 4, Senators 3 | Lightning | 7 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Senators 5, Lightning 4 | Senators | 9 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Senators 3, Lightning 2 (OT) | Lightning | 5 |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Senators 4, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Lightning 6, Senators 4 | Senators | 10 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Senators 5, Lightning 2 | Senators | 7 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Senators 7, Lightning 4 | Senators | 11 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | Senators 7, Lightning 2 | Senators | 9 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | Lightning 4, Senators 3 | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 1, 2022 | Lightning 5, Senators 2 | Lightning | 7 |
| Dec 16, 2021 | Lightning 2, Senators 1 | Lightning | 3 |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Senators 4, Lightning 0 | Senators | 4 |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Lightning 5, Senators 3 | Senators | 8 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.