a Atlantic Division matchup
Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 18 meetings
Maple Leafs lead the recent series 9 wins to 9. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 8 of the 18 (44%). The only road win by either club was Maple Leafs 5, Sabres 4 on Nov 13, 2021.
4 of the 18 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 13 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Dec 21, 2023, Sabres 9, Maple Leafs 3, 12 goals between them. 3 of the 18 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 14, 2026, Sabres 3, Maple Leafs 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Sabres 3, Maple Leafs 2 (OT) | Sabres | 5 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Sabres 7, Maple Leafs 4 | Maple Leafs | 11 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Sabres 3 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Sabres 5, Maple Leafs 3 | Sabres | 8 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Sabres 0 | Sabres | 4 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Maple Leafs 6, Sabres 3 | Sabres | 9 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Maple Leafs 5, Sabres 3 | Maple Leafs | 8 |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Maple Leafs 3, Sabres 0 | Sabres | 3 |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Maple Leafs 2, Sabres 1 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 3 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Sabres 9, Maple Leafs 3 | Sabres | 12 |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Sabres 6, Maple Leafs 4 | Maple Leafs | 10 |
| Mar 13, 2023 | Sabres 4, Maple Leafs 3 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | Maple Leafs 6, Sabres 3 | Sabres | 9 |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Maple Leafs 5, Sabres 2 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Apr 12, 2022 | Sabres 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Sabres 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Sabres | 7 |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Sabres 5, Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Nov 13, 2021 | Maple Leafs 5, Sabres 4 | Sabres | 9 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.