a Atlantic Division matchup
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 19 meetings
Lightning lead the recent series 10 wins to 9. The home team won 10 of the 19 (53%).
8 of the 19 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 8 finished at 7 or more. 3 landed on 6. The busiest was Oct 14, 2021, Lightning 7, Red Wings 6, 13 goals between them. 5 of the 19 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Apr 13, 2026, Lightning 4, Red Wings 3.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Lightning 4, Red Wings 3 (OT) | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Lightning 4, Red Wings 1 | Lightning | 5 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Lightning 6, Red Wings 3 | Red Wings | 9 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Red Wings 2, Lightning 1 (OT) | Red Wings | 3 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 3 (OT) | Lightning | 7 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lightning 6, Red Wings 3 | Red Wings | 9 |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Red Wings 2, Lightning 0 | Red Wings | 2 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Lightning 5, Red Wings 1 | Lightning | 6 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Red Wings 2, Lightning 1 | Red Wings | 3 |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Red Wings 6, Lightning 4 | Red Wings | 10 |
| Apr 13, 2023 | Lightning 5, Red Wings 0 | Lightning | 5 |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Lightning 3, Red Wings 0 | Red Wings | 3 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Red Wings 7, Lightning 4 | Red Wings | 11 |
| Dec 6, 2022 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Apr 19, 2022 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 3 | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Lightning 2, Red Wings 1 (OT) | Red Wings | 3 |
| Mar 4, 2022 | Lightning 3, Red Wings 1 | Lightning | 4 |
| Oct 14, 2021 | Lightning 7, Red Wings 6 (OT) | Red Wings | 13 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.