a Eastern Conference matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Maple Leafs lead the recent series 10 wins to 5. The home team won 9 of the 15 (60%).
5 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 8 finished at 7 or more. 2 landed on 6. The busiest was Mar 2, 2025, Maple Leafs 6, Penguins 5, 11 goals between them. 2 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Dec 23, 2025, Maple Leafs 6, Penguins 3.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | Maple Leafs 6, Penguins 3 | Maple Leafs | 9 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Maple Leafs 7, Penguins 2 | Penguins | 9 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 3 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Maple Leafs 6, Penguins 5 (OT) | Penguins | 11 |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Penguins 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Penguins | 7 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 2 | Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Maple Leafs 3, Penguins 2 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Maple Leafs 7, Penguins 0 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Penguins 3, Maple Leafs 2 | Penguins | 5 |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 1 | Penguins | 5 |
| Nov 15, 2022 | Maple Leafs 5, Penguins 2 | Penguins | 7 |
| Nov 11, 2022 | Penguins 4, Maple Leafs 2 | Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Feb 17, 2022 | Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 1 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Penguins 2, Maple Leafs 0 | Maple Leafs | 2 |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Penguins 7, Maple Leafs 1 | Penguins | 8 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.