a Atlantic Division matchup
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 19 meetings
Lightning lead the recent series 10 wins to 9. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 7 of the 19 (37%). The only road win by either club was Panthers 4, Lightning 1 on Oct 19, 2021.
9 of the 19 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 7 finished at 7 or more. 3 landed on 6. The busiest was Dec 30, 2021, Panthers 9, Lightning 3, 12 goals between them. 2 of the 19 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Feb 5, 2026, Lightning 6, Panthers 1.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Lightning 6, Panthers 1 | Lightning | 7 |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Lightning 4, Panthers 2 | Panthers | 6 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Panthers 5, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 7 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Lightning 3, Panthers 1 | Panthers | 4 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Lightning 5, Panthers 1 | Lightning | 6 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Panthers 2, Lightning 1 | Panthers | 3 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Lightning 4, Panthers 0 | Panthers | 4 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Panthers 4, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Lightning 5, Panthers 3 | Panthers | 8 |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Panthers 9, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 11 |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Panthers 3, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 5 |
| Feb 28, 2023 | Panthers 4, Lightning 1 | Lightning | 5 |
| Feb 6, 2023 | Panthers 7, Lightning 1 | Panthers | 8 |
| Dec 10, 2022 | Lightning 4, Panthers 1 | Lightning | 5 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | Lightning 3, Panthers 2 (OT) | Panthers | 5 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Lightning 8, Panthers 4 | Panthers | 12 |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Panthers 9, Lightning 3 | Panthers | 12 |
| Nov 13, 2021 | Lightning 3, Panthers 2 (OT) | Lightning | 5 |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Panthers 4, Lightning 1 | Lightning | 5 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.