a matchup between the conferences
Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 10 meetings
Lightning lead the recent series 6 wins to 4. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 7 of the 10 (70%).
Totals have split rather than clustered. 5 of the 10 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 5 finished at 7 or more. The number never landed on 6. The busiest was Dec 14, 2023, Lightning 7, Oilers 4, 11 goals between them. 1 of the 10 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 21, 2026, Lightning 5, Oilers 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Lightning 5, Oilers 2 | Oilers | 7 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Lightning 2, Oilers 1 (OT) | Lightning | 3 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Lightning 4, Oilers 1 | Lightning | 5 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Oilers 2, Lightning 1 | Oilers | 3 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Lightning 7, Oilers 4 | Oilers | 11 |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Lightning 6, Oilers 4 | Lightning | 10 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | Oilers 5, Lightning 3 | Oilers | 8 |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Oilers 3, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 5 |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Oilers 4, Lightning 1 | Oilers | 5 |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Lightning 5, Oilers 3 | Lightning | 8 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2022. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
These clubs meet rarely, so unfamiliarity, travel and scheduling quirks carry more weight than usual. Those are exactly the situations the model is built to read. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.