a matchup between the conferences
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 10 meetings
Canucks lead the recent series 6 wins to 4. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 7 of the 10 (70%).
Totals have split rather than clustered. 7 of the 10 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 3 finished at 7 or more. The number never landed on 6. The busiest was Mar 5, 2022, Canucks 6, Maple Leafs 4, 10 goals between them. 1 of the 10 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Jan 31, 2026, Maple Leafs 3, Canucks 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maple Leafs 3, Canucks 2 (OT) | Canucks | 5 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Maple Leafs 5, Canucks 0 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Canucks 2, Maple Leafs 1 | Canucks | 3 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Canucks 3, Maple Leafs 0 | Maple Leafs | 3 |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Canucks 6, Maple Leafs 4 | Canucks | 10 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Maple Leafs 5, Canucks 2 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Canucks 4, Maple Leafs 1 | Canucks | 5 |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Maple Leafs 3, Canucks 2 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Canucks 6, Maple Leafs 4 | Maple Leafs | 10 |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Canucks 3, Maple Leafs 2 | Canucks | 5 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2022. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks
These clubs meet rarely, so unfamiliarity, travel and scheduling quirks carry more weight than usual. Those are exactly the situations the model is built to read. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.