a matchup between the conferences
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 10 meetings
Lightning lead the recent series 6 wins to 4. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 5 of the 10 (50%). The only road win by either club was Lightning 4, Golden Knights 3 on Dec 21, 2021.
2 of the 10 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 7 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Feb 18, 2023, Golden Knights 5, Lightning 4, 9 goals between them. 3 of the 10 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Nov 6, 2025, Lightning 6, Golden Knights 3.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | Lightning 6, Golden Knights 3 | Golden Knights | 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Lightning 2, Golden Knights 1 (OT) | Lightning | 3 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Golden Knights 4, Lightning 2 | Golden Knights | 6 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Lightning 4, Golden Knights 3 | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 19, 2024 | Lightning 5, Golden Knights 3 | Golden Knights | 8 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Lightning 5, Golden Knights 4 | Lightning | 9 |
| Mar 9, 2023 | Golden Knights 4, Lightning 3 (OT) | Lightning | 7 |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Golden Knights 5, Lightning 4 | Golden Knights | 9 |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Golden Knights 3, Lightning 2 (OT) | Lightning | 5 |
| Dec 21, 2021 | Lightning 4, Golden Knights 3 | Golden Knights | 7 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights
These clubs meet rarely, so unfamiliarity, travel and scheduling quirks carry more weight than usual. Those are exactly the situations the model is built to read. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.