a Eastern Conference matchup
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Islanders lead the recent series 9 wins to 6. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 8 of the 15 (53%). The only road win by either club was Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 0 on Nov 21, 2021.
7 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 7 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Mar 21, 2023, Islanders 7, Maple Leafs 2, 9 goals between them. 4 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Apr 9, 2026, Islanders 5, Maple Leafs 3.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Islanders 5, Maple Leafs 3 | Islanders | 8 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Islanders 3, Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs | 4 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Islanders 4, Maple Leafs 3 (OT) | Islanders | 7 |
| Jan 2, 2025 | Maple Leafs 2, Islanders 1 | Islanders | 3 |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 1 | Maple Leafs | 4 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Islanders 6, Maple Leafs 3 | Maple Leafs | 9 |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Islanders 3, Maple Leafs 2 | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Islanders 4, Maple Leafs 3 (OT) | Islanders | 7 |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Islanders 4, Maple Leafs 3 (OT) | Islanders | 7 |
| Mar 21, 2023 | Islanders 7, Maple Leafs 2 | Islanders | 9 |
| Jan 23, 2023 | Maple Leafs 5, Islanders 2 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Nov 21, 2022 | Islanders 3, Maple Leafs 2 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 5 |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Maple Leafs 4, Islanders 2 | Maple Leafs | 6 |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 1 | Islanders | 4 |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 0 | Islanders | 3 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.