a Eastern Conference matchup
Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Hurricanes lead the recent series 8 wins to 7. The home team won 8 of the 15 (53%).
8 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 5 finished at 7 or more. 2 landed on 6. The busiest was Nov 24, 2023, Lightning 8, Hurricanes 2, 10 goals between them. 3 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 14, 2026, Hurricanes 4, Lightning 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Hurricanes 4, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 6 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Hurricanes 5, Lightning 4 | Hurricanes | 9 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Lightning 6, Hurricanes 4 | Lightning | 10 |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Hurricanes 4, Lightning 1 | Hurricanes | 5 |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Lightning 3, Hurricanes 2 | Lightning | 5 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Lightning 4, Hurricanes 1 | Hurricanes | 5 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Lightning 8, Hurricanes 2 | Hurricanes | 10 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Hurricanes 4, Lightning 0 | Lightning | 4 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Lightning 3, Hurricanes 0 | Lightning | 3 |
| Mar 28, 2023 | Lightning 4, Hurricanes 0 | Hurricanes | 4 |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Hurricanes 6, Lightning 0 | Hurricanes | 6 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | Hurricanes 4, Lightning 3 (OT) | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Lightning 4, Hurricanes 3 (OT) | Lightning | 7 |
| Mar 22, 2022 | Hurricanes 3, Lightning 2 | Hurricanes | 5 |
| Nov 9, 2021 | Hurricanes 2, Lightning 1 (OT) | Lightning | 3 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.