a Eastern Conference matchup
Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 15 meetings
Lightning lead the recent series 11 wins to 4. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 7 of the 15 (47%). The only road win by either club was Lightning 4, Flyers 3 on Nov 18, 2021.
6 of the 15 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 8 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Jan 23, 2024, Lightning 6, Flyers 3, 9 goals between them. 3 of the 15 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Jan 12, 2026, Lightning 5, Flyers 1.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | Lightning 5, Flyers 1 | Flyers | 6 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Lightning 7, Flyers 2 | Flyers | 9 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Lightning 3, Flyers 0 | Lightning | 3 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Lightning 2, Flyers 0 | Lightning | 2 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Flyers 4, Lightning 3 (OT) | Flyers | 7 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Flyers 2, Lightning 1 (OT) | Lightning | 3 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Lightning 7, Flyers 0 | Lightning | 7 |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Flyers 6, Lightning 2 | Flyers | 8 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Lightning 6, Flyers 3 | Flyers | 9 |
| Mar 7, 2023 | Lightning 5, Flyers 2 | Lightning | 7 |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Lightning 4, Flyers 1 | Flyers | 5 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Flyers 3, Lightning 2 | Lightning | 5 |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Lightning 7, Flyers 1 | Flyers | 8 |
| Nov 23, 2021 | Lightning 4, Flyers 0 | Lightning | 4 |
| Nov 18, 2021 | Lightning 4, Flyers 3 (OT) | Flyers | 7 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Conference games carry playoff seeding weight. The intensity tightens the checking and pulls event rates down compared with a casual date against the other conference. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.