a matchup between the conferences
Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 10 meetings
Maple Leafs lead the recent series 9 wins to 1. The home team won 6 of the 10 (60%).
2 of the 10 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 7 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Dec 10, 2022, Maple Leafs 5, Flames 4, 9 goals between them. 3 of the 10 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Feb 2, 2026, Maple Leafs 4, Flames 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Maple Leafs 4, Flames 2 | Flames | 6 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Flames 3 | Maple Leafs | 7 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Maple Leafs 6, Flames 2 | Maple Leafs | 8 |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Maple Leafs 6, Flames 3 | Flames | 9 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Flames 3 | Flames | 7 |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Maple Leafs 5, Flames 4 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 9 |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Maple Leafs 2, Flames 1 | Flames | 3 |
| Dec 10, 2022 | Maple Leafs 5, Flames 4 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 9 |
| Feb 10, 2022 | Flames 5, Maple Leafs 2 | Flames | 7 |
| Nov 12, 2021 | Maple Leafs 2, Flames 1 (OT) | Maple Leafs | 3 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2021. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs
These clubs meet rarely, so unfamiliarity, travel and scheduling quirks carry more weight than usual. Those are exactly the situations the model is built to read. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.