a Atlantic Division matchup

Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators Head to Head

Montréal Canadiens logo
MTL
vs
Ottawa Senators logo
OTT
common line 6.5 34567891011 total goals, one dot per meeting
19 meetings since 2022. 6 finished at 5 goals or fewer, 12 at 7 or more, and 1 landed on 6.

Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.

The last 19 meetings

19
meetings since 2022
7.05
goals per game
10 of 19
won by the home team
12 of 19
over 6.5

Senators lead the recent series 11 wins to 8. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 10 of the 19 (53%). The only road win by either club was Canadiens 2, Senators 1 on Feb 26, 2022.

6 of the 19 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 12 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Jan 17, 2026, Canadiens 6, Senators 5, 11 goals between them. 3 of the 19 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 11, 2026, Canadiens 3, Senators 2.

Every Montréal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators meeting since 2022
DateResultHostGoals
Mar 11, 2026Canadiens 3, Senators 2Senators5
Jan 17, 2026Canadiens 6, Senators 5 (OT)Senators11
Dec 2, 2025Senators 5, Canadiens 2Canadiens7
Nov 1, 2025Canadiens 4, Senators 3 (OT)Canadiens7
Apr 11, 2025Senators 5, Canadiens 2Senators7
Mar 18, 2025Canadiens 6, Senators 3Canadiens9
Feb 22, 2025Canadiens 5, Senators 2Senators7
Oct 12, 2024Canadiens 4, Senators 1Canadiens5
Apr 13, 2024Senators 5, Canadiens 4 (OT)Senators9
Jan 23, 2024Senators 4, Canadiens 1Canadiens5
Jan 18, 2024Senators 6, Canadiens 2Senators8
Feb 25, 2023Senators 5, Canadiens 2Canadiens7
Jan 31, 2023Senators 5, Canadiens 4Canadiens9
Jan 28, 2023Senators 5, Canadiens 0Senators5
Dec 14, 2022Senators 3, Canadiens 2Senators5
Apr 23, 2022Senators 6, Canadiens 4Senators10
Apr 5, 2022Senators 6, Canadiens 3Canadiens9
Mar 19, 2022Canadiens 5, Senators 1Canadiens6
Feb 26, 2022Canadiens 2, Senators 1Senators3

Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2022. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.

See the projection for this game

When Montréal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.

Open ArakIce

How the model reads Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.

What tends to move Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.