a Atlantic Division matchup
Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators Head to Head
Here is what the record between these two clubs looks like, and how ArakIce reads their next meeting.
The last 19 meetings
Senators lead the recent series 11 wins to 8. Where the game is played has mattered more than who is better. The home team won 10 of the 19 (53%). The only road win by either club was Canadiens 2, Senators 1 on Feb 26, 2022.
6 of the 19 finished at 5 goals or fewer. 12 finished at 7 or more. 1 landed on 6. The busiest was Jan 17, 2026, Canadiens 6, Senators 5, 11 goals between them. 3 of the 19 needed overtime. Most recent meeting: Mar 11, 2026, Canadiens 3, Senators 2.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Canadiens 3, Senators 2 | Senators | 5 |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Canadiens 6, Senators 5 (OT) | Senators | 11 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Senators 5, Canadiens 2 | Canadiens | 7 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Canadiens 4, Senators 3 (OT) | Canadiens | 7 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Senators 5, Canadiens 2 | Senators | 7 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Canadiens 6, Senators 3 | Canadiens | 9 |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Canadiens 5, Senators 2 | Senators | 7 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Canadiens 4, Senators 1 | Canadiens | 5 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Senators 5, Canadiens 4 (OT) | Senators | 9 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Senators 4, Canadiens 1 | Canadiens | 5 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Senators 6, Canadiens 2 | Senators | 8 |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Senators 5, Canadiens 2 | Canadiens | 7 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Senators 5, Canadiens 4 | Canadiens | 9 |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Senators 5, Canadiens 0 | Senators | 5 |
| Dec 14, 2022 | Senators 3, Canadiens 2 | Senators | 5 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Senators 6, Canadiens 4 | Senators | 10 |
| Apr 5, 2022 | Senators 6, Canadiens 3 | Canadiens | 9 |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Canadiens 5, Senators 1 | Canadiens | 6 |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Canadiens 2, Senators 1 | Senators | 3 |
Compiled from ArakIce's own game database, covering every meeting between these clubs since 2022. Percentages appear only for matchups with at least 8 meetings.
See the projection for this game
When Montréal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are on the slate, ArakIce projects a win probability and a total for the game.
Open ArakIceHow the model reads Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators
The projection starts with expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up. That holds up better than goals scored, which swing on shooting luck. From there it adjusts for what is true only of this game: who is confirmed in net, whether either club is playing a second night in a row or sitting deep in a road trip, the travel and the time zones, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
What tends to move Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators
Division rivals meet several times a year and know each other well. Those games tend to be tighter and more defensive, which is part of why the totals above sit where they do. Beyond that, the biggest movers are goaltending confirmations, home ice, and whether either side is playing a second night in a row or finishing a long trip.